Transportation

eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. This chapter forecasts transportation energy demand, for both the U.S. and California, for the next 20 years. Our guiding principle has been to concentrate our efforts on the most important segments of the market. We therefore provide detailed projections for gasoline (58 % of California transportation energy in 1988), jet fueI (17%), distillate (diesel) fuel (13%), and residual bunker) fuel (10%). We ignore the remaining 2%--natural gas, aviation gasoIine, liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants, and electricity. Although we discuss prospects for the use of alternative fuels such as methanoI and natural gas, we do not believe that these will be significant factors in the next 20 years. Table 2-1 gives an overview of transportation energy use in California and the U.S.