社会经济变量对预期寿命的影响:138个国家的实证研究

Mahmoud Mourad
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摘要

本研究考察了138个国家的5岁以下儿童死亡率(MORRATE)、医生死亡率(PMP)、人均卫生支出(HEPP)、电力获取率(AELEC)和人均国内生产总值对出生时预期寿命(LEB)的影响。MORRATE从2.4到160.2不等(每1 000人),因此反映出LEB的不平等,在44.8和82.8之间波动。PMP在0.01到7.74之间,HEPP在16.92到8264美元之间,AELEC在4.1%到100%之间,最后人均GDP在326.6到102,863美元之间波动。采用OLS方法对多元线性回归模型进行了估计,并进行了多项异方差检验。拒绝了均方差的零假设,因此使用加权广义最小二乘(WGLS)方法来产生无偏、有效和一致的估计量。结果表明,MORRATE对LEB有负向影响。死亡儿童人数每增加一次,生活负荷就会减少约2.12个月。HEPP对LEB有积极的影响,所以如果HEPP上升到100美元,那么LEB大约上升33天。当引入表征五大洲的四个二元变量,并以大洋洲为参考时,非洲国家的预期寿命将比LEB参考少2.4岁左右。对于其他大陆,LEB的值似乎非常接近。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Socio-Economic Variables on Life Expectancy: An Empirical Study for 138 Countries
This study has examined the impact of mortality rate of children under five years of age (MORRATE), physicians (PMP), health expenditure per person (HEPP), access to electricity (AELEC) and GDP per capita on life expectancy at birth (LEB) for one hundred and thirty-eight countries taken as cross-sectional data. The MORRATE ranged from 2.4 to 160.2 (per 1,000 people), thus reflecting an inequality in LEB which fluctuates between 44.8 and 82.8. The PMP varies from 0.01 to 7.74, the HEPP between 16.92 and 8264 USD, the AELEC between 4.1% to 100% and finally the GDP per capita oscillates between 326.6 and 102,863 USD. The multiple linear regression model is estimated using the OLS method and several tests for heteroscedasticity are performed. The null hypothesis of homoscedasticity is rejected and therefore the Weighted Generalized Least Squares )WGLS) method is used to produce unbiased, efficient and consistent estimators. The results showed a negative impact of MORRATE on LEB. A single increase in the number of deceased children leads to a decrease of about 2.12 months in LEB. The HEPP has a positive impact on LEB, so if HEPP rises to 100 USD then the LEB rises by 33 days approximately. When introducing four binary variables characterizing the five continents, and taking Oceania as a reference, the life expectancy in an African country will be about 2.4 years less than the LEB reference. For the other continents, it seems that the values of LEB are very close.
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