Forecasting the Impact of COVID-19 on Remittance Inflows in Selected South Asian Countries

This study aims to analyse the COVID-19 impact on remittance inflow in the selected south Asian (developing) countries. The current study applies the Automatic ARIMA forecasting by using the ARMA method up to 2021M12. The major findings demonstrate that the remittances inflow in selected countries has faced with negative and zero growth rates due to lockdown situations in wage earners markets. At the end of 2019M12, the economy gets the growth rate of remittance inflows in Bangladesh is 0.08%, Sri Lanka is 0.29%, and Pakistan is 0.15%. At the early of 2020M02, growth rate has -0.11%, -0.09% and -0.04%, respectively. The estimated remittances growth rate at the end of 2020M12 is 0.10%, -0.002%, and 0.03%, respectively. This study adds extensive knowledge and importance of wage earners' remittances inflows with problem and solutions aspects. Accordingly, we will add some new points to the existing literature.