Research on Intrusion Prediction Algorithm Based on Association Attack Diagram ASAD

In view of the problem that the attack diagram model can't accurately reflect the impact of attack evidence on the intrusion intent prediction, an intrusion prediction algorithm, INPA based on association attack diagram, ASAD is proposed. This paper defines the parameters of resource node D, attack evidence M, single-step attack T, etc., and constructs the associated attack diagram model to describe the whole process of the intruder reaching the target node from the initial node, and then, Bayesian inference design and Associated quantization algorithm, Correlate are used to calculate the probability of single-step attack. Finally, combined with the And-Or relationship between the directed edges of ASAD, the expression formula of the reach probability of each node is derived, and INPA is designed to realize the function of dynamic prediction the potential intrusion in the network.