房价、货币、信贷和宏观经济

C. Goodhart, Boris Hofmann
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引用次数: 754

摘要

本文评估了过去三十年来工业化国家的货币、信贷、房价和经济活动之间的联系。该分析基于固定效应面板向量自回归,使用1970-2006年期间17个工业化国家的季度数据进行估计。分析的主要结果如下:(i)有证据表明,房价、货币变量和宏观经济之间存在重要的多向联系。(ii)房价与货币变量之间的联系在1985年至2006年的子样本中被发现更强。(三)发现当房价高涨时,货币和信贷冲击的影响更大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
House Prices, Money, Credit and the Macroeconomy
This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices, and economic activity in industrialized countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel vector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the period 1970-2006. The main results of the analysis are the following. (i) There is evidence of a significant multidirectional link between house prices, monetary variables, and the macroeconomy. (ii) The link between house prices and monetary variables is found to be stronger over a more recent sub-sample from 1985 to 2006. (iii) The effects of shocks to money and credit are found to be stronger when house prices are booming.
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