发射设施的可靠性和安全性

V. Poshyvalov, Yu.F. Daniiev
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摘要

本文研究了发射综合体的可靠性和安全性问题。确定了发射系统复杂可靠性评估中需要解决的问题:具有等可靠度和非等可靠度的被动冗余系统的无故障运行概率计算,具有整数倍性和卸载备用的替换冗余系统的可靠性分析;计算发射复杂部件在发射准备过程中无故障运行的概率,计算单个部件的整体可靠性指标,并将计算的可靠性指标与规范要求进行比较。由于发射综合体由可再生元件和不可再生元件组成,因此必须计算可靠性指标,以便对单个元件和由不同类型元件组成的系统作为一个整体进行可靠性评估。这些指标以非失效运行时间和恢复时间的分布为特征,表示元件和系统处于可使用状态或失效状态的概率。在非故障运行时间和恢复时间可以用威布尔分布描述的条件下,得到可用性因子的表达式,即发射综合体在任意时间运行的概率,除了计划中不打算使用发射综合体的时间段。发射综合体的安全性评估是通过危险的概率、减轻其后果的主要方法的识别和考虑服役中可能危险后果的权重来进行的。确定了发射综合体安全指标。结果表明,必须使用适合于实际解决发射综合体开发过程中对可能的威胁的特定安全要求的论证和保证问题的指标来评价安全性。所采用的安全指标是指在一定时间内发生的每一种危害被消除的概率。更新过程用于描述随机数量的危险事件。建议采用发射复杂事故率和可靠性统计数据、事件树和故障树分析的逻辑方法、事故仿真模型和专家判断等方法确定事故发生频率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Reliability and safety of launch complexes
This paper is concerned with the reliability and safety of launch complexes. The problems to be solved in launch complex reliability evaluation are identified: calculations of the probability of no-failure operation of passive redundancy systems with equal- and nonequal-reliability elements, reliability analysis for replacement redundancy with integer multiplicity and unloaded reserve; calculations of the probability of no-failure operation of the launch complex components in launch preparation, and calculations of the reliability indices of a component part as a whole and a comparison of the calculated reliability indices with the specification requirements. Since a launch complex consists both of renewable elements and of nonrenewable ones, the reliability indices must be calculated so that one may evaluate the reliability both of individual elements and of a system of different-type elements as a whole. These indices are characterized by the nonfailure operation time and recovery time distributions and show the probability of а serviceable state or a failure state of an element and a system. On condition that the nonfailure operation time and the recovery time can be described by the Weibull distribution, expressions are obtained for the availability factor, i.e., the probability of the launch complex being operative at an arbitrary time, except for scheduled periods during which the launch complex is not envisaged for use. Launch complex safety is evaluated by the probability of hazards, the identification of main ways to mitigate their consequences, and account for weight of the consequences of possible hazards in service. Launch complex safety indices are identified. It is shown that safety must be evaluated using indices suitable for the practical solution of problems of the justification and assurance of specified safety requirements against possible threats in the development of launch complexes. The adopted safety index is the probability that each hazard that occurs in a certain time will be eliminated. A renewal process is used to describe a random number of hazard occurrences. To determine the hazard frequency, it is recommended to use statistical data on launch complex accident rate and reliability, logical methods of event tree and fault tree analysis, accident simulation models, and expert judgments.
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