LSTM-Based Prediction of COVID-19 Vaccination Drive in India

The vaccination drive for the much dangerous and contagious Coronavirus (COVID-19) has started successfully in India. This paper proposes to predict the vaccination drive of COVID-19 using the time series data for India. The proposed model was used for predicting the number of people to be vaccinated once per day in the country. The proposed model was compared with the direct input-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) cell model using various performance parameters and the proposed model was found to perform better. The actual closeness of the model’s prediction from the actual data was depicted through line graphs. The proposed model was further used to predict the short-term and long-term future values. Herd immunity is another key ongoing research area when it comes to COVID-19. The Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) of COVID-19 has not been found yet. However, this paper has proposed the expected number of days for different population thresholds. The proposed model predicts 174 days for obtaining a population threshold of 50% and 319 days for obtaining a population threshold of 90%.