卫生对疟疾传播动力学的影响:一个数学模型

T. Oluwafemi, E. Azuaba
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引用次数: 4

摘要

疟疾继续对公共卫生构成重大挑战,特别是在发展中国家,89个国家估计有2.19亿疟疾病例。本文利用非线性微分方程建立了卫生条件对疟疾传播动态影响的数学模型,并对模型进行了分析。该模型分为七个隔间,其中包括五个人体隔间,即;不卫生易感人群、卫生易感人群、不卫生感染人群、卫生感染人群和康复人群,蚊子种群细分为易感蚊子和感染蚊子。解的正性表明存在一个模型在生物学上有意义且数学上适定的域。得到了模型的无病平衡点(Disease-Free Equilibrium, DFE)点,利用下一代方法计算了基本繁殖数,建立了无病平衡点局部稳定的条件,然后通过构造模型系统的Lyapunov函数得到了无病平衡点的全局稳定。对模型系统进行敏感性分析,确定各参数对基本繁殖数的影响,结果表明,蚊虫自然死亡率对基本繁殖数最敏感。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of Hygiene on Malaria Transmission Dynamics: A Mathematical Model
Malaria continues to pose a major public health challenge, especially in developing countries, 219 million cases of malaria were estimated in 89 countries. In this paper, a mathematical model using non-linear differential equations is formulated to describe the impact of hygiene on Malaria transmission dynamics, the model is analyzed. The model is divided into seven compartments which includes five human compartments namely; Unhygienic susceptible human population, Hygienic Susceptible Human population, Unhygienic infected human population , hygienic infected human population and the Recovered Human population  and the mosquito population is subdivided into susceptible mosquitoes  and infected mosquitoes . The positivity of the solution shows that there exists a domain where the model is biologically meaningful and mathematically well-posed. The Disease-Free Equilibrium (DFE) point of the model is obtained, we compute the Basic Reproduction Number using the next generation method and established the condition for Local stability of the disease-free equilibrium, and we thereafter obtained the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium by constructing the Lyapunov function of the model system. Also, sensitivity analysis of the model system was carried out to identify the influence of the parameters on the Basic Reproduction Number, the result shows that the natural death rate of the mosquitoes is most sensitive to the basic reproduction number.
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