Using Community College Prior Academic Performance to Predict Re-Enrollment at a Four-Year Online University

Students’ re-enrollment in the subsequent semester after their first semester at a four-year institution is a strong predictor of retention and graduation. This is especially true for students who transfer from a community college to a four-year institution because of the many external or non-academic factors influencing a student’s decision to re-enroll. This research study examines student learner characteristics and course-taking behaviors at the community college and first-term GPA at a four-year institution to predict the likelihood of re-enrollment for 8,200 students from two community colleges who transferred to an online, public, four-year institution. The logistic regression models showed that gender, age, and first-term GPA at the four-year institution were significant predictors of re-enrollment. These findings contribute to the growing literature on transfer students and may provide researchers and practitioners a greater understanding of how community college factors influence the progression and success for transfer students at four-year institutions.