运用模拟方法预测区域医院急救服务需求

B. Mielczarek, Justyna Uzialko-Mydlikowska
{"title":"运用模拟方法预测区域医院急救服务需求","authors":"B. Mielczarek, Justyna Uzialko-Mydlikowska","doi":"10.5555/2429759.2430232","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We present a general simulation framework designed to model the Polish regional emergency hospital services system. Based partly on the last year's demand and structure, the National Health Fund grants contracts for admission units and emergency wards (AU/EW) to cover the next year's costs of treatment of acute patients. The hybrid simulation model examines the impact of forecasted regional demographic fluctuations on the expected type, volume, and cost of medical procedures for patients in emergency departments. Two simulation models are developed. A Monte Carlo model examines the influence of the observed demographic trends on the volume of emergency demand directed toward AU/EW in the region. The discrete-event model simulates patients' pathways and received services. The model's output may help healthcare decision makers to estimate future needs for emergency hospital care that must be satisfied at the regional level.","PeriodicalId":287132,"journal":{"name":"Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications","volume":"19 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2012-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Using simulation to forecast the demand for hospital emergency services at the regional level\",\"authors\":\"B. Mielczarek, Justyna Uzialko-Mydlikowska\",\"doi\":\"10.5555/2429759.2430232\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We present a general simulation framework designed to model the Polish regional emergency hospital services system. Based partly on the last year's demand and structure, the National Health Fund grants contracts for admission units and emergency wards (AU/EW) to cover the next year's costs of treatment of acute patients. The hybrid simulation model examines the impact of forecasted regional demographic fluctuations on the expected type, volume, and cost of medical procedures for patients in emergency departments. Two simulation models are developed. A Monte Carlo model examines the influence of the observed demographic trends on the volume of emergency demand directed toward AU/EW in the region. The discrete-event model simulates patients' pathways and received services. The model's output may help healthcare decision makers to estimate future needs for emergency hospital care that must be satisfied at the regional level.\",\"PeriodicalId\":287132,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications\",\"volume\":\"19 2\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2012-12-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.5555/2429759.2430232\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Online World Conference on Soft Computing in Industrial Applications","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.5555/2429759.2430232","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7

摘要

我们提出了一个通用的模拟框架,旨在模拟波兰地区急救医院服务系统。根据去年的需求和结构,国家卫生基金授予住院单位和急诊病房(AU/EW)合同,以支付下一年治疗急性病人的费用。混合模拟模型检验了预测的区域人口波动对急诊室患者医疗程序的预期类型、数量和成本的影响。建立了两种仿真模型。蒙特卡洛模型考察了观察到的人口趋势对该区域面向非盟/EW的紧急需求数量的影响。离散事件模型模拟患者的路径和接受的服务。该模型的输出可以帮助医疗保健决策者估计未来必须在区域一级满足的医院急诊护理需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Using simulation to forecast the demand for hospital emergency services at the regional level
We present a general simulation framework designed to model the Polish regional emergency hospital services system. Based partly on the last year's demand and structure, the National Health Fund grants contracts for admission units and emergency wards (AU/EW) to cover the next year's costs of treatment of acute patients. The hybrid simulation model examines the impact of forecasted regional demographic fluctuations on the expected type, volume, and cost of medical procedures for patients in emergency departments. Two simulation models are developed. A Monte Carlo model examines the influence of the observed demographic trends on the volume of emergency demand directed toward AU/EW in the region. The discrete-event model simulates patients' pathways and received services. The model's output may help healthcare decision makers to estimate future needs for emergency hospital care that must be satisfied at the regional level.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信