A Simulation Model for Analysis of Long Term Natural Gas Commitment

A simulation model is developed in this paper to estimate the number and timing of the exploratory attempts required to fulfill a company's long term gas commitment. The model simulates that company's production, exploration, and discovery in the given sedimentary basin. The model also considers exploration by other companies in the same area, and uses a field distribution to estimate the size of the discovery. With this simulation tool, natural gas producers and users can evaluate different scenarios and decide how the risks and costs of fulfilling long term gas commitments should be shared.