不确定性和风险下的人类决策:基于计算机的实验和启发式模拟程序

N. Findler
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引用次数: 5

摘要

每一个高等生物都必须定期、频繁地做出不同重要性的决定,以便生存和有效地生存。虽然决策的结果已经被广泛的不同学科研究,但决策过程本身却被忽视了。重点放在人类行为的规范方面,即一个理性的人或一群理性的人应该如何行动,与解释和预测实际人类行为的描述性理论不同。运筹学、管理科学、工业数学等领域的绝大多数攻击技术和方法都可以被称为:规范决策理论。另一方面,数学心理学的学生,可能从洛夫莱斯夫人,伯努利和拉普拉斯开始,一直在关注决策的行为方面,也就是说,在某些情况下做什么,为什么做。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Human decision making under uncertainty and risk: computer-based experiments and a heuristic simulation program
Every organism of higher order has to make decisions of varying importance regularly and frequently in order to survive and to survive efficiently. While the outcome of decision making has been studied extensively by a wide range of different disciplines, the decision making processes themselves have been neglected in comparison. Emphasis has been placed on the normative aspects of human behavior, i.e., how a rational person or a group of rational persons ought to behave, as distinct from descriptive theories which are to explain and predict actual human behavior. An overwhelming majority of techniques and methods of attack in operations research, management science, industrial mathematics, etc. could be given the label: Normative Decision Theory. The students of mathematical psychology, on the other hand, beginning probably with Lady Lovelace, Bernoulli and Laplace, have been concerned with the behavioral aspects of decision making, i.e., what is being done in certain situations, and why.
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