Prediction of Rationality for Ferry Crossing Behavior Based on Multi Hidden Markov Model

The crossing of a channel is a typical scenario for the ferries in the Yangtze River, which increases the navigation risk for both the ferry and the ships navigating in the channel. From the perspective of crossing behavior, this paper proposes a predictive method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to analyze the dynamic process of crossing. The observation factors are established by analyzing expertise of captains of passenger ships and ferries. The state transfer matrix between safe crossing and unsafe crossing, together with the emission matrix between hidden states and observation, is proposed by using statistical data. The proposed method is applied to the real crossing scenario of a WUDU2HAO ferry in the Changzhou port of Yangtze River as a test. The result state that the proposed method for rationality prediction of crossing behaviors of ferries is reasonable.