初选日:为什么总统候选人应该在一天内选出

Eugene D. Mazo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为什么我们有选举日而没有初选日?在总统候选人提名过程中,没有哪一个环节能像初选日程那样引起如此多的争议。日历从每个选举年的1月或2月开始,到6月结束。57个司法管辖区在这几个月里举行初选和预选会议。爱荷华州的党团会议总是在日历上开始,然后是新罕布什尔州的初选。这些竞争的结果在淘汰一些候选人的同时也为其他候选人提供了动力。参加前几次提名竞争的候选人比参加最后几次提名竞争的候选人多,这意味着在提前举行提名竞争的州,选民获得了不成比例的权力,而在晚举行提名竞争的州,选民在选择本党总统候选人时的发言权更少或没有。在某些年份,一个政党的总统提名竞选在晚投票州的公民甚至有机会投票之前就结束了。为了获得更大的影响力和更大的发言权,各州一直试图通过一种被称为“前置”的过程将初选提前。随着政治家、记者、学者和公民都试图在每次选举周期之前重新思考初选日程,这种动态引发了改革的呼声。这篇文章探讨了主要的日历以及可以做些什么来改变它。它首先解释了为什么爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州总是先举行他们的提名竞争,并研究了其他州是如何试图通过先发制人来赶上爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州的实力的。它还简要介绍了2020年的初选日程,并解释了两大政党如何试图在2020年玩规则,以给总统提名过程带来一些稳定。然后,本文转而研究大多数选民一直支持的一项改革:在一天内举行所有初选和预选会议。安排全国初选日很重要,不仅因为目前的初选日程错开的性质使一些候选人比其他候选人享有特权,而且还因为它有利于一些州的选民和党员,而不是其他州的选民和党员。解决这一问题并确保所有选民得到平等对待的方法是在同一天举行所有57场提名竞选。虽然安排全国初选日似乎是选择政党总统候选人的一种简单、直接和公平的方式,但全国初选也有其自身的挑战。全国初选将改变总统竞选的性质,把候选人的资源和开支从爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州等人口稀少的州转移到加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等人口稠密的州。这也会削弱那些资金和知名度较低的候选人的抱负,因为他们没有机会在早期的州建立势头。与此相关的一个问题是,在57个不同司法管辖区竞选的候选人名单可能非常庞大,而且没有候选人赢得这些选票的多数,因此如何在全国初选中计算选票。最后,还有一个棘手的问题,那就是如何将单一的初选日期强加给各州。国会是否有权决定各州举行初选的日期是一个宪法问题,目前仍未解决。两党是否有足够的意志力将全国初选强加给各州也仍然是个疑问。因此,虽然举办全国小学日的好处可能是巨大的,但实现这一目标的道路也面临着挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Primary Day: Why Presidential Nominees Should Be Chosen on a Single Day
Why do we have an Election Day but not a Primary Day? No aspect of the presidential nomination process causes as much controversy as the primary calendar. The calendar starts off in January or February of each election year and ends in June. Fifty-seven jurisdictions hold their primaries and caucuses over the course of these months. The Iowa caucuses always start off the calendar, and they are followed by the New Hampshire primaries. The results of these contests work to eliminate some candidates while they bestow momentum on others. More candidates participate in the first few nomination contests than in the last ones, meaning that disproportionate power is given to voters in states holding early nomination contests, while those in states with later contests are provided with less or no voice in choosing their party’s presidential nominee. In some years, a party’s presidential nomination contest ends before citizens in late-voting states have even had a chance to cast their ballots. To gain more influence and greater voice, states have consistently attempted to move their primaries forward in a process known as “front-loading.” This dynamic has led to calls for reform, as politicians, journalists, scholars, and citizens all try to rethink the primary calendar ahead of each election cycle. This essay examines the primary calendar and what can be done to change it. It begins by explaining why Iowa and New Hampshire always hold their nomination contests first, and it looks at how other states have tried to match Iowa and New Hampshire's power through front-loading. It also briefly looks at the 2020 primary calendar and explains how both major parties tried to play with the rules in 2020 to bring some stability to the presidential nomination process. This essay then turns to examine the one reform that a majority of voters consistently support: holding all primaries and caucuses on a single day. Scheduling a national Primary Day is important not only because the current staggered nature of the primary calendar privileges some candidates over others, but also because it favors voters and party members in some states over those in other states. The way to remedy this problem and to ensure that all voters are treated equally is to hold all 57 nomination contests on the single day. While scheduling a national Primary Day would appear to be a simple, direct, and fair way of selecting a party’s presidential nominee, a national primary also comes with its own challenges. A national primary would change the nature of presidential campaigns by shifting the resources and spending of candidates from low-population states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina to high-population states like California, Texas, and Florida. It would also diminish the aspirations of candidates with less money and name recognition by denying them the opportunity to build momentum in the early states. A related concern has to do with how votes would be tallied and added up in a national primary when the list of candidates running in 57 different jurisdictions could potentially be very large and no candidate wins a majority of these votes. Finally, there is the thorny issue of how a single primary date could ever be imposed on the states. Whether Congress has the power to set the date on which the states hold their primaries is a constitutional question that remains unresolved. Whether the national parties could muster the willpower to impose a national primary on the states also remains in doubt. As a result, while the benefits of holding a national Primary Day may be substantial, the path to getting there comes with its own challenges.
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