面对快速发展的技术,不确定性和风险下的决策

V. G. Díaz, J. Z. Bonilla, Pablo Viveros Gunckel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本章旨在考虑新概念工业4.0对决策的影响,特别是在减少不确定性和与备选方案之间的任何选择相关的风险方面。为此,本章首先讨论风险和不确定性的概念及其认识论的演变。在观察了这方面的某些趋势和最近的研究之后,作者提出了一种更哲学的风险感知,主要是与工程和社会感知相关的方面。还将审查人的可靠性的概念,以及如何利用新兴技术改进这一概念,并考虑一些改进决策的方法建议。在此基础上,简要讨论了未来可能的研究方向。最后,本章通过强调本章的关键方面作为本书其他章节的背景来结束。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risks in the Face of Rapidly Advancing Technologies
This chapter aims to consider the effects of the new concept Industry 4.0 on decision making, particularly on the reduction of uncertainty and the risk associated with any choice between alternatives. For this purpose, this chapter begins by dealing with the concepts of risk and uncertainty and their epistemological evolution. After observing certain trends and recent studies in this regard, the authors address a more philosophical perception of risk, mainly on aspects related to engineering and social perception. The concept of human reliability will also be reviewed and how it can be improved with the application of emerging technologies, considering some methodological proposals to improve the decision making. After that, some of the possible future research directions will be briefly discussed. Finally, the chapter concludes by highlighting key aspects of the chapter as a context for other chapters in the book.
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