A nomogram model for the risk prediction of type 2 diabetes in healthy eastern China residents: a 14-year retrospective cohort study from 15,166 participants.

Background: Risk prediction models can help identify individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. However, no such model has been applied to clinical practice in eastern China.

Aims: This study aims to develop a simple model based on physical examination data that can identify high-risk groups for type 2 diabetes in eastern China for predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.

Methods: A 14-year retrospective cohort study of 15,166 nondiabetic patients (12-94 years; 37% females) undergoing annual physical examinations was conducted. Multivariate logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models were constructed for univariate analysis, factor selection, and predictive model building. Calibration curves and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the calibration and prediction accuracy of the nomogram, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess its clinical validity.

Results: The 14-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in this study was 4.1%. This study developed a nomogram that predicts the risk of type 2 diabetes. The calibration curve shows that the nomogram has good calibration ability, and in internal validation, the area under ROC curve (AUC) showed statistical accuracy (AUC = 0.865). Finally, DCA supports the clinical predictive value of this nomogram.

Conclusion: This nomogram can serve as a simple, economical, and widely scalable tool to predict individualized risk of type 2 diabetes in eastern China. Successful identification and intervention of high-risk individuals at an early stage can help to provide more effective treatment strategies from the perspectives of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine.