A single nucleotide polymorphism-based formula to predict the risk of propofol TCI concentration being over 4 µg mL−1 at the time of loss of consciousness

We aim to develop a formula based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to predict whether the propofol target-controlled infusion (TCI) concentration would be over 4 μg mL−1 at the time of loss of consciousness (LOC). We recruited 184 patients undergoing thyroid or breast surgeries with propofol anaesthesia. A total of 48 SNPs of CYP2B6, CYP2C9, UGT1A9, HNF4A, ABCB1, ABCC4, ABCG2, GABRA2, GABRA4, GABRB1, GABRB3, GABRG2, GABBR2, GAD1, SLC1A3, BDNF, and NRXN1, previously associated with propofol metabolic and pharmacology pathway, were genotyped. The formula was developed in the training cohort using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression model, and then validated in the testing cohort. The SNPs, GABBR2 rs1167768, GABBR2 rs1571927, NRXN1 rs601010, BDNF rs2049046, GABRA4 rs1512135, UGT1A9 rs11692021, GABBR2 rs2808536, HNF4A rs1884613, GABRB3 rs2017247, and CYP2B6 rs3181842 were selected to construct the SNP-based formula, which was used to calculate the risk score for over 4 μg mL−1 TCI concentration of propofol at the time of LOC. Patients in the high-risk group were more likely to require a propofol concentration higher than 4 μg mL−1 and presented a longer LOC latency. The SNP-based formula may significantly improve the safety and effectiveness of propofol-induced anaesthesia.