Zhongci Deng, Cai Li, Zhen Wang, Ping Kang, Yuanchao Hu, Haozhi Pan, Gang Liu
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The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.
While the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatens global nutrition security, the magnitude and extent of its impact remain underexamined. Here we show that, with the lowest level of war duration, severity, sanction, and countries involved, the direct and indirect impacts of the war and sanctions could newly place 67.3 million people (roughly equals the total population of France) in undernourishment and 316.7 million people (roughly equals the total population of Bangladesh and Russia) suffering from extreme national food insecurity. Approximately 95% of the affected population are from developing countries, highlighting the vulnerability of food supply in these countries. Both the undernourished population and its inequality across countries will substantially grow, if war duration and severity increase. If the war is prolonged to early 2024, future agricultural growth cannot fully offset the negative impacts, and global hunger will still very likely exacerbate. We conclude that targeted measures should be placed in developing countries and their vulnerable populations to reconstruct a just, healthy, and environmentally sustainable food system.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00112-8.
期刊介绍:
Discover Sustainability is part of the Discover journal series committed to providing a streamlined submission process, rapid review and publication, and a high level of author service at every stage. It is a multi-disciplinary, open access, community-focussed journal publishing results from across all fields relevant to sustainability research.
We need more integrated approaches to social, environmental and technological systems to address some of the challenges to the sustainability of life on Earth. Discover Sustainability aims to support multi-disciplinary research and policy developments addressing all 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The journal is intended to help researchers, policy-makers and the general public understand how we can ensure the well-being of current and future generations within the limits of the natural world by sustaining planetary and human health. It will achieve this by publishing open access research from across all fields relevant to sustainability.
Submissions to Discover Sustainability should seek to challenge existing orthodoxies and practices and contribute to real-world change by taking a multi-disciplinary approach. They should also provide demonstrable solutions to the challenges of sustainability, as well as concrete suggestions for practical implementation, such as how the research can be operationalised and delivered within a wide socio-technical system.