俄乌战争对发展中国家的营养安全造成了极大威胁。

IF 2.4 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Discover Sustainability Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-11-17 DOI:10.1007/s43621-022-00112-8
Zhongci Deng, Cai Li, Zhen Wang, Ping Kang, Yuanchao Hu, Haozhi Pan, Gang Liu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

正在进行的俄乌战争威胁着全球营养安全,但其影响的程度和范围仍未得到充分研究。我们在此表明,在战争持续时间、严重程度、制裁和涉及国家均为最低水平的情况下,战争和制裁的直接和间接影响可能会使 6730 万人(约等于法国的总人口)陷入营养不良,3.167 亿人(约等于孟加拉国和俄罗斯的总人口)遭受极端的国家粮食不安全。约 95% 的受影响人口来自发展中国家,凸显了这些国家粮食供应的脆弱性。如果战争持续时间和严重程度延长,营养不良人口及其在各国之间的不平等将大幅增加。如果战争持续到 2024 年初,未来的农业增长将无法完全抵消其负面影响,全球饥饿问题仍有可能加剧。我们的结论是,应在发展中国家及其弱势群体中采取有针对性的措施,重建一个公正、健康和环境可持续的粮食系统:在线版本包含补充材料,可查阅 10.1007/s43621-022-00112-8。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.

The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.

The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.

The Russia-Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries.

While the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war threatens global nutrition security, the magnitude and extent of its impact remain underexamined. Here we show that, with the lowest level of war duration, severity, sanction, and countries involved, the direct and indirect impacts of the war and sanctions could newly place 67.3 million people (roughly equals the total population of France) in undernourishment and 316.7 million people (roughly equals the total population of Bangladesh and Russia) suffering from extreme national food insecurity. Approximately 95% of the affected population are from developing countries, highlighting the vulnerability of food supply in these countries. Both the undernourished population and its inequality across countries will substantially grow, if war duration and severity increase. If the war is prolonged to early 2024, future agricultural growth cannot fully offset the negative impacts, and global hunger will still very likely exacerbate. We conclude that targeted measures should be placed in developing countries and their vulnerable populations to reconstruct a just, healthy, and environmentally sustainable food system.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43621-022-00112-8.

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来源期刊
Discover Sustainability
Discover Sustainability sustainability research-
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
7.70%
发文量
38
审稿时长
26 days
期刊介绍: Discover Sustainability is part of the Discover journal series committed to providing a streamlined submission process, rapid review and publication, and a high level of author service at every stage. It is a multi-disciplinary, open access, community-focussed journal publishing results from across all fields relevant to sustainability research. We need more integrated approaches to social, environmental and technological systems to address some of the challenges to the sustainability of life on Earth. Discover Sustainability aims to support multi-disciplinary research and policy developments addressing all 17 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The journal is intended to help researchers, policy-makers and the general public understand how we can ensure the well-being of current and future generations within the limits of the natural world by sustaining planetary and human health. It will achieve this by publishing open access research from across all fields relevant to sustainability. Submissions to Discover Sustainability should seek to challenge existing orthodoxies and practices and contribute to real-world change by taking a multi-disciplinary approach. They should also provide demonstrable solutions to the challenges of sustainability, as well as concrete suggestions for practical implementation, such as how the research can be operationalised and delivered within a wide socio-technical system.
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