Determining Percentiles of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk According to Sex and Age in a Healthy Brazilian Population.

Background: Expressing the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) as percentiles of the distribution according to sex and age may provide a better perception of the risk.

Objectives: To determine percentiles of the 10-year ASCVD risk distribution according to sex and age in a sample of the Brazilian population; to characterize individuals at low 10-year risk but high risk percentile.

Methods: We analyzed individuals aged 40 to 75 years who underwent routine health evaluations from 2010 to 2020. Persons with known clinical ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, or LDL-cholesterol ≥ 190 mg/dL were excluded. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations. Local polynomial regression was used to determine risk percentiles. Two-sided p-values < 0.050 were considered statistically significant.

Results: Our sample comprised 54,145 visits (72% male, median age [interquartile range] 48 [43, 53] years). We constructed sex-specific graphs plotting age against ASCVD risk corresponding to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Most males up to 47 years and females up to 59 years above the 75th percentile had a 10-year risk < 5%. Individuals at low 10-year risk and risk percentile ≥ 75th had a high prevalence of excess weight and median (interquartile range) LDL-cholesterol levels 136 (109, 158) mg/dL (males) and 126 (105, 147) mg/dL (females).

Conclusions: We established ASCVD risk percentiles according to sex and age in a large sample of the Brazilian population. This approach may increase risk awareness and help identify younger persons at low 10-year risk who may benefit from more aggressive risk factor control.