COVID-19进展动态及措施对大流行结局的长期影响

IF 3.6 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Yihong Lan, Li Yin, Xiaoqin Wang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大流行的进展是一个动态过程,在这个过程中,措施产生结果,结果反过来影响随后的措施和结果。由于大流行进展的动态,分析序列中单个措施对大流行结果的长期影响具有挑战性。为了证明问题并找到解决办法,本文研究了大流行的第一波(可能是北欧国家最活跃的时期),并分析了瑞典采取的措施相对于邻国采取的措施对COVID-19死亡率、一般死亡率、COVID-19发病率和失业率的影响。设计为纵向观察性研究。采用基于泊松分布或二项分布的线性回归进行分析。为了表明可以及时进行分析,我们使用了第一波期间可用的表格数据。我们发现,瑞典早期的措施对公共卫生结果产生了长期和显著的因果影响,并在第一波浪潮中对失业产生了一定程度的长期缓解因果影响,在第一波浪潮中,瑞典措施下的这些结果相对于其他北欧国家采取的措施有所增加,从而衡量了这种影响。现有的分析没有提供来自第一波疫情的这一信息,但本可以在抗击第二波疫情中发挥重要作用。最后,基于表格数据的分析可以及时提供关于大流行动态进展的信息,以及序列中单个措施对大流行结果的长期影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dynamics of COVID-19 progression and the long-term influences of measures on pandemic outcomes.

The pandemic progression is a dynamic process, in which measures yield outcomes, and outcomes in turn influence subsequent measures and outcomes. Due to the dynamics of pandemic progression, it is challenging to analyse the long-term influence of an individual measure in the sequence on pandemic outcomes. To demonstrate the problem and find solutions, in this article, we study the first wave of the pandemic-probably the most dynamic period-in the Nordic countries and analyse the influences of the Swedish measures relative to the measures adopted by its neighbouring countries on COVID-19 mortality, general mortality, COVID-19 incidence, and unemployment. The design is a longitudinal observational study. The linear regressions based on the Poisson distribution or the binomial distribution are employed for the analysis. To show that analysis can be timely conducted, we use table data available during the first wave. We found that the early Swedish measure had a long-term and significant causal effect on public health outcomes and a certain degree of long-term mitigating causal effect on unemployment during the first wave, where the effect was measured by an increase of these outcomes under the Swedish measures relative to the measures adopted by the other Nordic countries. This information from the first wave has not been provided by available analyses but could have played an important role in combating the second wave. In conclusion, analysis based on table data may provide timely information about the dynamic progression of a pandemic and the long-term influence of an individual measure in the sequence on pandemic outcomes.

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来源期刊
Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
Emerging Themes in Epidemiology Medicine-Epidemiology
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
4.30%
发文量
9
审稿时长
28 weeks
期刊介绍: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology is an open access, peer-reviewed, online journal that aims to promote debate and discussion on practical and theoretical aspects of epidemiology. Combining statistical approaches with an understanding of the biology of disease, epidemiologists seek to elucidate the social, environmental and host factors related to adverse health outcomes. Although research findings from epidemiologic studies abound in traditional public health journals, little publication space is devoted to discussion of the practical and theoretical concepts that underpin them. Because of its immediate impact on public health, an openly accessible forum is needed in the field of epidemiology to foster such discussion.
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