在社区一级评估大流行病适应能力的评价模型:德黑兰案例。

IF 11.7 1区 工程技术 Q1 Engineering
Sustainable Cities and Society Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Epub Date: 2021-09-28 DOI:10.1016/j.scs.2021.103410
Azadeh Lak, Pantea Hakimian, Ayyoob Sharifi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

COVID-19 病毒的传播在人类住区造成大量死亡,引起了城市规划者和政策制定者的关注,认为有必要提高对未来流行病的抵御能力。本研究确定了一系列与大流行病抗御能力相关的指标,并利用这些指标为德黑兰的居民区制定了多维度的大流行病抗御能力综合指数。通过探索性因素分析方法,考虑到 351 个社区的情况,确定了大流行病复原力的物理、基础设施、社会经济和环境维度。相应地,计算出了各社区的大流行适应力(PR)得分。此外,我们还使用了皮尔逊相关分析法,通过考察社区 PR 分数与确诊病例数之间的相关性来验证 PR 分数。为此,我们使用了在 COVID-19 传播的头五个月中由 43,000 名确诊患者组成的样本。检验结果表明,居民区复原力得分与居民区确诊患者累计人数之间存在统计学意义上的显著负相关(r= -.456,P<0.05)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An evaluative model for assessing pandemic resilience at the neighborhood level: The case of Tehran.

The spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has caused abundant mortalities in human settlements, has drawn the attention of urban planners and policy-makers to the necessity of improving resilience to future pandemics. In this study, a set of indicators related to pandemic resilience were identified and used to develop a composite multi-dimensional pandemic resilience index for Tehran's neighborhoods. The physical, infrastructural, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions of pandemic resilience were defined considering the conditions of 351 neighborhoods through the exploratory factor analysis method. Accordingly, the pandemic resilience (PR) score of the neighborhoods was calculated. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation analysis was used to validate the PR scores by examining the correlation between the neighborhood PR scores and the number of confirmed cases. For this purpose, we used a sample consisting of 43,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the first five months of its spread. The test shows a statistically significant negative correlation between neighborhoods' resilience score and the cumulative number of confirmed patients in the neighborhoods (r= -.456, P<0.001). This study also tries to develop a new model to better understand health determinants of pandemic resilience. The proposed model can inform planners and policymakers to take appropriate measures to create more pandemic-resilient urban neighborhoods.

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来源期刊
Sustainable Cities and Society
Sustainable Cities and Society CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGYGREEN &-GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
CiteScore
18.40
自引率
13.70%
发文量
810
期刊介绍: Sustainable Cities and Society (SCS) is an international journal focusing on fundamental and applied research aimed at designing, understanding, and promoting environmentally sustainable and socially resilient cities.
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