{"title":"自然灾害前的疏散:来自印度的菲林飓风和菲律宾的海燕台风的证据","authors":"Colin Walch","doi":"10.1002/geo2.51","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Why do some people evacuate ahead of natural disasters while others do not? This paper explores the conditions under which people are likely to evacuate. It does so by contrasting a success case of evacuation before cyclone Phailin in Orissa (India), with a failed case in Tacloban, before typhoon Haiyan (the Philippines). This paper examines this striking variation by examining the importance of two main factors suggested by previous research: experience and trust. The paper argues that prior experience of natural disaster increases individual perception of risk and may lead to institutional learning, but only where the experienced disaster was traumatic. Trust between citizens and public officials is held to further increase the likelihood people will evacuate in advance of natural disasters. Evidence of these causal mechanisms is found in the empirical analysis, which is based on 41 interviews and six focused group discussions in India and the Philippines between August and November 2014.</p>","PeriodicalId":44089,"journal":{"name":"Geo-Geography and Environment","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2018-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/geo2.51","citationCount":"20","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evacuation ahead of natural disasters: Evidence from cyclone Phailin in India and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines\",\"authors\":\"Colin Walch\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/geo2.51\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Why do some people evacuate ahead of natural disasters while others do not? This paper explores the conditions under which people are likely to evacuate. It does so by contrasting a success case of evacuation before cyclone Phailin in Orissa (India), with a failed case in Tacloban, before typhoon Haiyan (the Philippines). This paper examines this striking variation by examining the importance of two main factors suggested by previous research: experience and trust. The paper argues that prior experience of natural disaster increases individual perception of risk and may lead to institutional learning, but only where the experienced disaster was traumatic. Trust between citizens and public officials is held to further increase the likelihood people will evacuate in advance of natural disasters. Evidence of these causal mechanisms is found in the empirical analysis, which is based on 41 interviews and six focused group discussions in India and the Philippines between August and November 2014.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44089,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geo-Geography and Environment\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-05-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1002/geo2.51\",\"citationCount\":\"20\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geo-Geography and Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/geo2.51\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOGRAPHY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geo-Geography and Environment","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/geo2.51","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOGRAPHY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evacuation ahead of natural disasters: Evidence from cyclone Phailin in India and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines
Why do some people evacuate ahead of natural disasters while others do not? This paper explores the conditions under which people are likely to evacuate. It does so by contrasting a success case of evacuation before cyclone Phailin in Orissa (India), with a failed case in Tacloban, before typhoon Haiyan (the Philippines). This paper examines this striking variation by examining the importance of two main factors suggested by previous research: experience and trust. The paper argues that prior experience of natural disaster increases individual perception of risk and may lead to institutional learning, but only where the experienced disaster was traumatic. Trust between citizens and public officials is held to further increase the likelihood people will evacuate in advance of natural disasters. Evidence of these causal mechanisms is found in the empirical analysis, which is based on 41 interviews and six focused group discussions in India and the Philippines between August and November 2014.
期刊介绍：
Geo is a fully open access international journal publishing original articles from across the spectrum of geographical and environmental research. Geo welcomes submissions which make a significant contribution to one or more of the journal’s aims. These are to: • encompass the breadth of geographical, environmental and related research, based on original scholarship in the sciences, social sciences and humanities; • bring new understanding to and enhance communication between geographical research agendas, including human-environment interactions, global North-South relations and academic-policy exchange; • advance spatial research and address the importance of geographical enquiry to the understanding of, and action about, contemporary issues; • foster methodological development, including collaborative forms of knowledge production, interdisciplinary approaches and the innovative use of quantitative and/or qualitative data sets; • publish research articles, review papers, data and digital humanities papers, and commentaries which are of international significance.
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