[The triglyceride glucose index predicts the risk of nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease in the Beijing community: a prospective cohort study].

Objective: To explore the characteristics of the association between the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index and nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk in a community population. Method: This was a prospective cohort study. From December 2011 to April 2012, the first investigation was conducted among subjects with more than 40-year old who were from Shijingshan district and Pingguoyuan community in Beijing. The second investigation was conducted from April to October 2015. All the subjects were divided into three groups according to the tertile of the TyG index at baseline. The multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model was established to explore the correlation between the TyG index and nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk and the Kaplan-Meier survival curve of the TyG index group was drawn. Subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, body mass index, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, and hyperlipidemia to determine the correlation characteristics between the TyG index and nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease among subgroups. Results: A total of 9 577 subjects were finally included to analyze. The mean follow-up time of this study was (34.14±3.84) months. During the follow-up, 363 subjects (3.8%) occurred nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease. The multivariate Cox regression analysis results showed that the hazard ratio (HR) of nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease in the high TyG index group was 1.54 (95%CI 1.19-1.98), 1.60 (95%CI 1.23-2.10), and 1.57 (95%CI 1.20-2.05) in the three models, compared with the low TyG index group. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the risk of nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease increased from the low-TyG index group to the high-TyG index group (P=0.015). In the six subgroups analysis, only gender was shown to have a significant interaction effect with the TyG index and nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk. In the female population, the risk of nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease is significantly increased with the increase in the TyG index level (P<0.001). Conclusions: A high TyG index is independently related to the increased risk of nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease in the Beijing community population. Gender has a significant interaction with the TyG index and nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk. Therefore, the TyG index may be a useful marker to predict the nonfatal cardio-cerebrovascular disease risk of a community population.