Nonfasting remnant cholesterol and cardiovascular disease risk prediction in Albertans: a prospective cohort study.

Background: European studies have shown that nonfasting remnant cholesterol can be a strong predictor of cardiovascular disease risk and may contribute to identifying residual risk; however, Canadian data are lacking on nonfasting remnant cholesterol. In this study, we aimed to determine the relation between nonfasting remnant cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and cardiovascular disease among people in Alberta.

Methods: In this retrospective analysis, we used data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project, a large prospective cohort that enrolled Albertans aged 35-69 years (2000-2015). Participants with consent to data linkage, with complete nonfasting lipid data and without existing cardiovascular disease were included. The nonfasting remnant cholesterol and LDL cholesterol relation with a composite cardiovascular disease outcome of major incident cardiovascular diagnoses, ascertained by linking to Alberta Health databases, was determined by multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, statin use, comorbidities, and LDL cholesterol or remnant cholesterol.

Results: The final sample of 13 988 participants was 69.4% female, and the mean age was 61.8 (standard deviation [SD] 9.7) years. Follow-up time was approximately 15 years. Mean remnant cholesterol was significantly higher among individuals with versus without cardiovascular disease (0.87 [SD 0.40] mmol/L v. 0.78 [SD 0.38] mmol/L, standardized mean difference [SMD] -0.24), and mean LDL cholesterol was significantly lower (2.69 [SD 0.93] mmol/L v. 2.88 [SD 0.84] mmol/L, SMD 0.21). The odds of incident composite cardiovascular disease were significantly increased per mmol/L increase in remnant cholesterol (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-1.73) but significantly decreased per mmol/L increase in LDL cholesterol (adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.68-0.79).

Interpretation: In this large Albertan cohort of predominantly older females, nonfasting remnant cholesterol had a positive relation with cardiovascular disease incidence, whereas LDL cholesterol did not. These findings support the clinical utility of measuring non-fasting remnant cholesterol to detect cardiovascular disease risk.