Prediction of Future Medical Costs by Modifiable Measures of Health.

Introduction: Strategies to mitigate rising health-care costs are a priority for patients, employers, and health insurers. Yet gaps currently exist in whether health risk assessment can forecast medical claims costs. This study examined the ability of a health quotient (HQ) based on modifiable risk factors, age, sex, and chronic conditions to predict future medical claims spending.

Methods: The study included 18,695 employees and adult dependents who participated in health assessments and were enrolled in an employer-sponsored health plan. Linear mixed effect models stratified by chronic conditions and adjusted for age and sex were utilized to evaluate the relationship between the health quotient (score of 0-100) and future medical claims spending.

Results: Lower baseline health quotient was associated with higher medical claims cost over 2 years of follow up. For participants with chronic condition(s), costs were $3628 higher for those with a low health quotient (<73; N = 2673) compared to those with high health quotient (>85; N = 1045), after adjustment for age and sex (P value = 0.004). Each one-unit increase in health quotient was associated with a decrease of $154 (95% CI: 87.4, 220.3) in average yearly medical claims costs during follow up.

Discussion: This study used a large employee population with 2 years of follow-up data, which provides insights that are applicable to other large employers. Results of this analysis contribute to our ability to predict health-care costs using modifiable aspects of health, objective laboratory testing and chronic condition status.