基于现实世界实践预测大型(>5cm)肝细胞癌患者总生存率的诺模图。

Journal of Liver Cancer Pub Date : 2023-09-01 Epub Date: 2023-09-06 DOI:10.17998/jlc.2023.08.10
Nalee Kim, Jeong Il Yu, Hee Chul Park, Jung Yong Hong, Ho Yeong Lim, Myung Ji Goh, Yong-Han Paik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景/目的:大(>5cm)肝细胞癌(HCC)患者的治疗选择有限,因此需要确定预后因素并开发预测工具。本研究旨在确定预后因素,并构建列线图来预测大型HCC患者的生存结果。方法:对2015年至2018年间在一家三级医院诊断为大型HCC的438名患者进行队列分析。Cox比例风险模型用于确定总生存率(OS)的关键预测因素,并使用一组独立的预测因素来制定列线图。对列线图的识别和校准能力进行了评估,并使用交叉验证和自举方法进行了内部验证。结果:在中位随访9.3个月期间,中位OS为9.9个月,1年OS发生率为43.9%。多变量Cox回归分析显示,表现状态、改良白蛋白-胆红素分级、肿瘤大小、门静脉肿瘤血栓形成程度和初始治疗显著影响OS。纳入这些变量的新开发列线图显示出良好的准确性(Harrell一致性指数,0.807)。结论:新开发的列线图有助于评估大型HCC患者的个体生存结果,提供了可接受的准确性水平。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma based on real-world practice.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma based on real-world practice.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma based on real-world practice.

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma based on real-world practice.

Background/aim: Patients with large (>5 cm) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have limited treatment options, thus necessitating the identification of prognostic factors and the development of predictive tools. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and to construct a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with large HCC.

Methods: A cohort of 438 patients, who were diagnosed with large HCC at a tertiary hospital between 2015 and 2018, was analyzed. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify key prognosticators of overall survival (OS), and an independent set of prognostic factors was used to develop a nomogram. The discrimination and calibration abilities of the nomogram were assessed and internal validation was performed using cross-validation and bootstrapping methods.

Results: During a median follow-up of 9.3 months, the median OS was 9.9 months, and the 1-year OS rate was 43.9%. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that performance status, modified albumin-bilirubin grade, tumor size, extent of portal vein tumor thrombosis, and initial treatment significantly affected OS. The newly developed nomogram incorporating these variables demonstrated favorable accuracy (Harrell's concordance index, 0.807).

Conclusions: The newly developed nomogram facilitated the estimation of individual survival outcomes in patients with large HCC, providing an acceptable level of accuracy.

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