Risk analysis of subsequent therapies after first-line chemotherapy in advanced testicular cancer patients.

Background: Testicular cancer is the most common solid cancer diagnosed among young men. Despite good response to chemotherapy and a high survival rate, subsequent salvage therapies may still be required for some patients in advanced stages. The predictive and prognostic markers are crucial unmet needs.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed advanced testicular cancer patients who had received first-line chemotherapy between January 2002 and December 2020. The associations between baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes were evaluated.

Results: Of the 68 included patients, the median age was 29 years. Among them, 40 patients received only first-line chemotherapy while the remaining 28 received subsequent chemotherapy or surgeries. Data reveal that 82.5% (33/40) of the patients in the chemotherapy-only group were recorded as a good prognostic risk using the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group classification when compared with 35.7% (10/28) in the second-line therapy group. In the chemotherapy-only group, 53.8% of patients were presented with lymph node metastasis compared with 78.6% in the second-line therapy group ( p = 0.068). Fifteen percent of patients (6/40) were recorded as S stage 2-3 in the chemotherapy-only group, whereas 85.2% (23/28) were recorded as such in the second-line therapy group ( p < 0.001). The 5-year overall survival estimation was 92.9% in the chemotherapy-only group and 77.3% in the second-line therapy group. Univariate analysis for overall survival revealed that those patients at the S 2-3 stage and those receiving second-line therapies showed a trend of having an increased death risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 8.26, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.99-68.67, p = 0.051; HR = 7.76, 95% CI, 0.93-64.99, p = 0.059, respectively). The S 2-3 stage was also independently associated with the risk of subsequent therapy (HR = 33.13; 95% CI, 2.55-430.64, p = 0.007).

Conclusion: Our real-world data show the predictive role of serum tumor marker stage 2-3 to be associated with any subsequent therapies after first-line chemotherapy. This can facilitate clinical decision making during the testicular cancer treatment process.