主要空气污染源的全球疾病负担(GBD MAPS):一种全球方法。

E McDuffie, R Martin, H Yin, M Brauer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

环境细颗粒物(颗粒2.5)是世界上主要的环境健康风险因素。减少PM2.5的疾病负担需要针对多个空间尺度上的主要来源采取具体策略。全球主要空气污染源疾病负担(GBD MAPS)项目对21个地区、204个国家和200个次国家级地区的污染源部门和燃料对环境PM2.5疾病负担的贡献进行了当代综合评估。我们首先使用更新的全球大气化学-输送模型,从24个排放敏感性模拟中得出定量贡献,并输入新开发的详细人为排放数据集,其中包括特定于源部门和燃料的排放。这些模拟结果与新获得的高分辨率卫星衍生PM2.5暴露估计和与GBD项目一致的疾病特异性浓度-响应关系相结合,量化特定来源部门和燃料对所有地区、国家和次国家地区环境PM2.5疾病负担的贡献。为了提高本工作和未来工作的透明度和可重复性,我们公开提供了全球大气化学输运模型源代码、排放数据集和排放模型源代码、分析脚本和源敏感性结果,并在两篇出版物中进一步描述了排放数据集和源贡献结果。我们发现,通过消除化石燃料燃烧,全球有近105万(95%不确定区间[UI]: 0.74- 136万)例死亡(PM2.5导致的总死亡率的27.3%)可以避免,其中煤炭贡献了一半以上的负担。住宅(19.2%;73.6万人死亡[95% UI: 521,000-955,000]),工业(11.7%;448,000人死亡[95% UI: 318,000-582,000]),能源(10.2%;391,000例死亡[95% UI: 277,000-507,000])部门排放是全球主要排放源之一,这些估计的不确定性反映了输入数据集的不确定性。人为贡献最大的区域通常可归因死亡人数最多,这清楚地表明,减少这些排放对于实现减少全球空气污染及其疾病负担的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS): A Global Approach.

Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS): A Global Approach.

Ambient fine particulate matter (particles <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5]) is the world's leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. The Global Burden of Disease from Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD MAPS) project provides a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of contributions to the ambient PM2.5 disease burden from source sectors and fuels across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 subnational areas. We first derived quantitative contributions from 24 emission sensitivity simulations using an updated global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, input with a newly developed detailed anthropogenic emissions dataset that includes emissions specific to source sector and fuels. These simulation results were integrated with newly available high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates and disease-specific concentration-response relationships consistent with the GBD project to quantify contributions of specific source sector and fuel to the ambient PM2.5 disease burden across all regions, countries, and subnational areas. To improve the transparency and reproducibility of this and future work, we publicly provided the global atmospheric chemistry-transport model source code, emissions dataset and emissions model source code, analysis scripts, and source sensitivity results, and further described the emissions dataset and source contribution results in two publications.

We found that nearly 1.05 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.74-1.36 million) deaths worldwide (27.3% of the total mortality attributable to PM2.5) would be avoidable by eliminating fossil fuel combustion, with coal contributing over half of that burden. Residential (19.2%; 736,000 deaths [95% UI: 521,000-955,000]), industrial (11.7%; 448,000 deaths [95% UI: 318,000-582,000]), and energy (10.2%; 391,000 deaths [95% UI: 277,000-507,000]) sector emissions are among the dominant global sources Uncertainty in these estimates reflects those of the input datasets. Regions with the largest anthropogenic contributions generally have the highest numbers of attributable deaths, which clearly demonstrates the importance of reducing these emissions to realize reductions in global air pollution and its disease burden.

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