Epidemiology and Damage Accrual of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Central Sweden: A Single-Center Population-Based Cohort Study Over 14 Years From Östergötland County.

Objective: Variations in prevalence and incidence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) within a geographically defined area of central Sweden over a time period of 14 years were examined. Longitudinal differences in disease activity, laboratory test results, and damage accrual were investigated.

Methods: Adults (aged ≥18 years) residing in Östergötland County between 2008 and 2021 (mean adult population: 357,000 citizens) with confirmed SLE were identified and followed prospectively until death, December 31, 2021, or emigration. We estimated annual incidence per 100,000 inhabitants stratified by sex and age. Linear regression with year of diagnosis as the outcome assessed whether each clinical measurement at diagnosis varied over time.

Results: Prevalence on December 31, 2021, was 71.5 of 100,000 (87% female). One hundred twenty-six new cases were identified during the study period, yielding a mean annual incidence of 3.0 of 100,000 inhabitants; this was higher in females (4.8/100,000) than in males (1.2/100,000). Mean age at diagnosis was 43.7 years (SD 17.3). Age at diagnosis and disease activity measures increased over the calendar year of diagnosis (P < 0.05) whereas disease manifestations, including lupus nephritis, did not vary significantly. Accrual of organ damage was demonstrated over time since diagnosis and stratified by sex, lupus nephritis, and corticosteroid-related damage. Approximately 40% developed damage within 5 years.

Conclusion: SLE prevalence and incidence estimates remained constant over 14 years, and disease phenotypes at SLE onset were similar. SLE was diagnosed also among older individuals with a smaller female-to-male ratio. Estimates of prevalence and incidence were comparable to previous Scandinavian reports but lower than observed in registry data from the US and the UK.