Forecasting daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Algeria using ARIMA models.

IF 1.7 4区医学 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI:10.26719/emhj.23.054

Messis Abdelaziz, Adjebli Ahmed, Ayeche Riad, Ghidouche Abderrezak, Ait-Ali Djida

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 has become a threat worldwide, affecting every country.

Aims: This study aimed to identify COVID-19 cases in Algeria using times series models for forecasting the disease.

Methods: Confirmed COVID-19 daily cases data were obtained from 21 March 2020 to 26 November 2020 from the Algerian Ministry of Health. Forecasting was done using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models (0,1,1) with Minitab 17 software.

Results: Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and placed within prediction intervals generated by ARIMA. Forecasted values of COVID-19 positive cases, recoveries and deaths showed an accurate trend, which corresponded to actual cases reported during 252, 253 and 254 days. Results were strengthened by variations of less than 5% between forecast and observed cases in 100% of forecasted data.

Conclusion: ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for predicting COVID-19 cases in Algeria.

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使用ARIMA模型预测阿尔及利亚每日COVID-19确诊病例。

背景:COVID-19已成为全球威胁，影响到每个国家。目的:本研究旨在利用时间序列模型预测阿尔及利亚的COVID-19病例。方法:从阿尔及利亚卫生部获取2020年3月21日至2020年11月26日每日确诊的COVID-19病例数据。使用Minitab 17软件使用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型(0,1,1)进行预测。结果:预测期内的观测病例被准确预测，并被置于ARIMA生成的预测区间内。新冠肺炎阳性病例、康复和死亡的预测值趋势准确，与252、253和254天的实际报告病例相对应。在100%的预测数据中，预测病例与观测病例之间的差异小于5%，结果得到了加强。结论:优化选择协变量的ARIMA模型是预测阿尔及利亚COVID-19病例的有效工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESPUBLIC, ENV-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

4.80%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： The Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, established in 1995, is the flagship health periodical of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean. The mission of the Journal is to contribute to improving health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by publishing and publicising quality health research and information with emphasis on public health and the strategic health priorities of the Region. It aims to: further public health knowledge, policy, practice and education; support health policy-makers, researchers and practitioners; and enable health professionals to remain informed of developments in public health. The EMHJ: -publishes original peer-reviewed research and reviews in all areas of public health of relevance to the Eastern Mediterranean Region -encourages, in particular, research related to the regional health priorities, namely: health systems strengthening; emergency preparedness and response; communicable diseases; noncommunicable diseases and mental health; reproductive, maternal, child health and nutrition -provides up-to-date information on public health developments with special reference to the Region. The Journal addresses all members of the health profession, health educational institutes, as well as governmental and nongovernmental organizations in the area of public health within and outside the Region.