Early predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy.

Abstract

Background: Currently, no guidelines specifically recommend scoring systems and biomarkers for early evaluation of the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP).

Objectives: This study aimed to explore the early predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests on APIP severity and maternofetal prognosis.

Design: This study retrospectively analyzed 62 APIP cases in a 6-year period.

Methods: The predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests that were collected 24 h and 48 h after admission, for APIP severity and fetal loss, were analyzed.

Results: To detect severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), a 24-h Bedside Index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) achieved a higher area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.910 than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (AUC = 0.898) and Ranson score (AUC = 0.880). The combination of BISAP, glucose, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), hematocrit (Hct), and serum creatinine (Scr) provided an AUC value of 0.984, which had greater predictive power than BISAP (p = 0.015). 24-h BISAP and Hct were independent risk factors for predicting SAP of APIP. The cutoff values of Hct and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) to predict SAP were 35.60% and 3.75 mmol/l in the APIP. Furthermore, 24-h BISAP had the highest predictive power (AUC = 0.958) for fetal loss.

Conclusion: BISAP is a convenient and reliable indicator for the early prediction of SAP and fetal loss in APIP. The combination of BISAP, glucose, NLR, Hct and Scr proved to be the optimal early markers for the prediction of SAP in APIP within 24 h after admission. In addition, Hct > 35.60% and BUN > 3.75 mmol/l may be suitable thresholds for predicting SAP in APIP.