Prescriptive Analytics-Based SIRM Model for Predicting Covid-19 Outbreak.

Q1 Business, Management and Accounting

Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-03-17 DOI:10.1007/s40171-023-00337-0

Jamal Al Qundus, Shivam Gupta, Hesham Abusaimeh, Silvio Peikert, Adrian Paschke

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predicting the outbreak of a pandemic is an important measure in order to help saving people lives threatened by Covid-19. Having information about the possible spread of the pandemic, authorities and people can make better decisions. For example, such analyses help developing better strategies for distributing vaccines and medicines. This paper has modified the original Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model to Susceptible-Immune-Infected-Recovered (SIRM) which includes the Immunity ratio as a parameter to enhance the prediction of the pandemic. SIR is a widely used model to predict the spread of a pandemic. Many types of pandemics imply many variants of the SIR models which make it very difficult to find out the best model that matches the running pandemic. The simulation of this paper used the published data about the spread of the pandemic in order to examine our new SIRM. The results showed clearly that our new SIRM covering the aspects of vaccine and medicine is an appropriate model to predict the behavior of the pandemic.

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基于规范分析的 SIRM 模型用于预测 Covid-19 爆发。

预测大流行病的爆发是一项重要措施，有助于挽救受到 Covid-19 威胁的人们的生命。掌握了大流行病可能传播的信息，当局和人们就能做出更好的决策。例如，此类分析有助于制定更好的疫苗和药品分发策略。本文将原来的易感-感染-恢复（SIR）模型修改为易感-免疫-感染-恢复（SIRM）模型，并将免疫比率作为一个参数，以加强对大流行病的预测。SIR 是一种广泛用于预测大流行病传播的模型。许多类型的大流行意味着 SIR 模型有许多变体，因此很难找出与正在发生的大流行相匹配的最佳模型。本文的模拟使用了已公布的大流行病传播数据，以检验我们的新 SIRM。结果清楚地表明，我们的新 SIRM 模型涵盖了疫苗和药物的各个方面，是预测大流行行为的合适模型。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management Business, Management and Accounting-Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Aim This journal intends to share concepts, researches and practical experiences to enable the organizations to become more flexible (adaptive, responsive, and agile) at the level of strategy, structure, systems, people, and culture. Flexibility relates to providing more options, quicker change mechanisms, and enhanced freedom of choice so as to respond to the changing situation with minimum time and efforts. It aims to make contributions in this direction to both the world of work and the world of knowledge so as to continuously evolve and enrich the flexible systems management paradigm at a generic level as well as specifically testing and innovating the use of SAP-LAP (Situation- Actor - Process-Learning-Action-Performance) framework in varied managerial situations to cope with the challenges of the new business models and frameworks. It is a General Management Journal with a focus on flexibility. Scope The Journal includes papers relating to: conceptual frameworks, empirical studies, case experiences, insights, strategies, organizational frameworks, applications and systems, methodologies and models, tools and techniques, innovations, comparative practices, scenarios, and reviews. The papers may be covering one or many of the following areas: Dimensions of enterprise flexibility, Connotations of flexibility, and Emerging managerial issues/approaches, generating and demanding flexibility.