Changes in incidence and mortality trend due to COVID-19 in southern Iran, from 2020 to 2021: based on Cochran-Armitage trend test.

Abstract

Background: In 2020, COVID-19 spread rapidly in Iran and other parts of the world. Some of the epidemiological aspects of this disease remain unknown; therefore, the present study was designed with the aim of determining the trend of incidence and mortality of COVID-19 from February 2020 to July 2021 in southern Iran.

Methods: The present study was a cross-sectional analytical study that included all people who had COVID-19 in the period from February 2020 to July 2021 and whose information had been registered in the Infectious Diseases Center of Larestan city and MCMC unit. The study area included the cities of Larestan, Evaz, and Khonj, located in the south of Fars province in southern Iran.

Results: Since the emergence of COVID-19 until July 2021, a total of 23,246 new cases of infection were reported in the southern region of Fars province. The average age of patients was 39.90±18.30 years and the range of ages varied from 1 to 103 years. The results of the Cochran-Armitage trend test showed that the trend of the disease in 2020 was completely upward. The first positive case of COVID-19 was recorded on February 27, 2020. The incidence curve in 2021 is sinusoidal, but in general, the results of the Cochran-Armitage trend test showed that the incidence of the disease increased significantly (P-trend < 0.001). Most cases were reported in July, April, and the end of March.

Conclusion: In general, the incidence rate of COVID-19 has varied sinusoidally from 2020 to mid-2021. Although the incidence of the disease increased, the number of deaths has fallen. It seems that the increase in the number of diagnostic tests and the implementation of the national COVID-19 immunization program have been effective in changing the trend of the disease.