Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting

IF 3 3区医学 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Epidemics Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100691

Sean M. Moore , Guido España , T. Alex Perkins , Robert M. Guido , Joaquin B. Jucaban , Tara L. Hall , Mark E. Huhtanen , Sheila A. Peel , Kayvon Modjarrad , Shilpa Hakre , Paul T. Scott

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings.

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社区发病率模式驱动了SARS-CoV-2暴发的风险，并改变了高风险机构环境中的干预影响

在高风险机构环境（如监狱、疗养院或军事基地）中，严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型（SARS-CoV-2）控制措施的优化取决于更广泛社区的传播动态如何影响当地的爆发风险。我们将军事训练营的个人传播模型与2020年和2021年RT-PCR阳性受训人员的数量进行了校准。在考虑到疫苗接种覆盖率、口罩合规性和病毒变异后，预测的新感染人数密切关注调整后的全国发病率，并增加了早期疫情风险。疫情规模与训练营期间工作人员中预计的基地外感染人数密切相关。此外，基地外感染减少了抵达筛查和戴口罩的影响，而抵达后感染受训人员的数量减少了疫苗接种和工作人员检测的影响。我们的研究结果强调了外部发病模式对调节风险和机构环境中控制措施的最佳组合的重要性。

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来源期刊

Epidemics INFECTIOUS DISEASES-

CiteScore

6.00

自引率

7.90%

发文量

审稿时长

140 days

期刊介绍： Epidemics publishes papers on infectious disease dynamics in the broadest sense. Its scope covers both within-host dynamics of infectious agents and dynamics at the population level, particularly the interaction between the two. Areas of emphasis include: spread, transmission, persistence, implications and population dynamics of infectious diseases; population and public health as well as policy aspects of control and prevention; dynamics at the individual level; interaction with the environment, ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, as well as population genetics of infectious agents.