Quantifying the spatial spillover effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk.

IF 3 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

International Journal of Health Geographics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI:10.1186/s12942-023-00335-6

Keli Wang, Xiaoyi Han, Lei Dong, Xiao-Jian Chen, Gezhi Xiu, Mei-Po Kwan, Yu Liu

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented in one place can affect neighboring regions by influencing people's behavior. However, existing epidemic models for NPIs evaluation rarely consider such spatial spillover effects, which may lead to a biased assessment of policy effects.

Methods: Using the US state-level mobility and policy data from January 6 to August 2, 2020, we develop a quantitative framework that includes both a panel spatial econometric model and an S-SEIR (Spillover-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model to quantify the spatial spillover effects of NPIs on human mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

Results: The spatial spillover effects of NPIs explain [Formula: see text] [[Formula: see text] credible interval: 52.8-[Formula: see text]] of national cumulative confirmed cases, suggesting that the presence of the spillover effect significantly enhances the NPI influence. Simulations based on the S-SEIR model further show that increasing interventions in only a few states with larger intrastate human mobility intensity significantly reduce the cases nationwide. These region-based interventions also can carry over to interstate lockdowns.

Conclusions: Our study provides a framework for evaluating and comparing the effectiveness of different intervention strategies conditional on NPI spillovers, and calls for collaboration from different regions.

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量化非药物干预措施对大流行风险的空间溢出效应。

背景:在一个地方实施的非药物干预(NPIs)可以通过影响人们的行为影响邻近地区。然而，现有的国家绩效评估流行病模型很少考虑这种空间溢出效应，这可能导致对政策效果的评估存在偏差。方法:利用2020年1月6日至8月2日美国州级人口流动和政策数据，我们开发了一个量化框架，该框架包括面板空间计量模型和S-SEIR(溢出易感-暴露-感染-恢复)模型，以量化npi对人口流动和COVID-19传播的空间溢出效应。结果:NPI的空间溢出效应解释了[公式:见文][[公式:见文]可信区间:52.8-[公式:见文]]全国累计确诊病例，表明溢出效应的存在显著增强了NPI的影响。基于S-SEIR模型的模拟进一步表明，只有在少数州内人口流动强度较大的州增加干预措施，才能显著减少全国范围内的病例。这些基于区域的干预措施也可能延续到州际封锁。结论:本研究为评估和比较基于新产品导入溢出效应的不同干预策略的有效性提供了一个框架，并呼吁不同地区开展合作。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Health Geographics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -

CiteScore

10.20

自引率

2.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： A leader among the field, International Journal of Health Geographics is an interdisciplinary, open access journal publishing internationally significant studies of geospatial information systems and science applications in health and healthcare. With an exceptional author satisfaction rate and a quick time to first decision, the journal caters to readers across an array of healthcare disciplines globally. International Journal of Health Geographics welcomes novel studies in the health and healthcare context spanning from spatial data infrastructure and Web geospatial interoperability research, to research into real-time Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-enabled surveillance services, remote sensing applications, spatial epidemiology, spatio-temporal statistics, internet GIS and cyberspace mapping, participatory GIS and citizen sensing, geospatial big data, healthy smart cities and regions, and geospatial Internet of Things and blockchain.