{"title":"Spatio-temporal model to investigate COVID-19 spread accounting for the mobility amongst municipalities","authors":"Chellafe Ensoy-Musoro , Minh Hanh Nguyen , Niel Hens , Geert Molenberghs , Christel Faes","doi":"10.1016/j.sste.2023.100568","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide led to the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission and hence reduce the number of infections. Using telecom-operator-based mobility data and a spatio-temporal dynamic model, the impact of mobility on the evolution of the pandemic at the level of the 581 Belgian municipalities is investigated. By decomposing incidence, particularly into within- and between-municipality components, we noted that the global epidemic component is relatively more important in larger municipalities (e.g., cities), while the local component is more relevant in smaller (rural) municipalities. Investigation of the effect of mobility on the pandemic spread showed that reduction of mobility has a significant impact in reducing the number of new infections.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46645,"journal":{"name":"Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology","volume":"45 ","pages":"Article 100568"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9904848/pdf/","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Spatial and Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877584523000059","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
The rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide led to the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission and hence reduce the number of infections. Using telecom-operator-based mobility data and a spatio-temporal dynamic model, the impact of mobility on the evolution of the pandemic at the level of the 581 Belgian municipalities is investigated. By decomposing incidence, particularly into within- and between-municipality components, we noted that the global epidemic component is relatively more important in larger municipalities (e.g., cities), while the local component is more relevant in smaller (rural) municipalities. Investigation of the effect of mobility on the pandemic spread showed that reduction of mobility has a significant impact in reducing the number of new infections.
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