Analyzing the effect of restrictions on the COVID-19 outbreak for some US states.

IF 1.2 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY

Theoretical Ecology Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-04-25 DOI:10.1007/s12080-023-00557-1

Mahir Demir, Ibrahim H Aslan, Suzanne Lenhart

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Abstract

The ongoing pandemic disease COVID‑19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID‑19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri. Our models and their parameter estimations show social distancing can reduce the transmission of COVID‑19 by 60% to 90%. Thus, obeying the movement restriction rules is crucial in reducing the magnitude of the outbreak waves. This study also estimates the percentage of people who were not social distancing ranges between 10% and 18% in these states. Our analysis shows the management restrictions taken by these states do not slow the disease progression enough to contain the outbreak.

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分析限制措施对美国一些州新冠肺炎疫情的影响。

持续的新冠肺炎疫情造成了全球社会和金融混乱。由于许多国家都在设计疫苗，许多国家已经出现了有害的第二波和第三波新冠肺炎疫情。为了调查美国传播率的变化和保持社交距离的影响，我们使用这些州的确诊病例和死亡数据建立了一个常微分方程系统：加利福尼亚州、得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、伊利诺伊州、路易斯安那州、密歇根州和密苏里州。我们的模型及其参数估计表明，保持社交距离可以将新冠肺炎的传播减少60%至90%。因此，遵守行动限制规则对于减少疫情爆发的规模至关重要。这项研究还估计，在这些州，没有保持社交距离的人的比例在10%到18%之间。我们的分析表明，这些州采取的管理限制措施并没有减缓疾病的发展，足以遏制疫情的爆发。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Theoretical Ecology 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Theoretical Ecology publishes innovative research in theoretical ecology, broadly defined. Papers should use theoretical approaches to answer questions of ecological interest and appeal to and be readable by a broad audience of ecologists. Work that uses mathematical, statistical, computational, or conceptual approaches is all welcomed, provided that the goal is to increase ecological understanding. Papers that only use existing approaches to analyze data, or are only mathematical analyses that do not further ecological understanding, are not appropriate. Work that bridges disciplinary boundaries, such as the intersection between quantitative social sciences and ecology, or physical influences on ecological processes, will also be particularly welcome. All areas of theoretical ecology, including ecophysiology, population ecology, behavioral ecology, evolutionary ecology, ecosystem ecology, community ecology, and ecosystem and landscape ecology are all appropriate. Theoretical papers that focus on applied ecological questions are also of particular interest.