Overlapped Bayesian spatio-temporal models to detect crime spots and their possible risk factors based on the Opole Province, Poland, in the years 2015-2019.

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Crime Science Pub Date : 2023-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-05-22 DOI:10.1186/s40163-023-00189-0

Rafał Drozdowski, Rafał Wielki, Andrzej Tukiendorf

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Geostatistical methods currently used in modern epidemiology were adopted in crime science using the example of the Opole province, Poland, in the years 2015-2019. In our research, we applied the Bayesian spatio-temporal random effects models to detect 'cold-spots' and 'hot-spots' of the recorded crime numbers (all categories), and to ascertain possible risk factors based on the available statistical population (demographic), socio-economic and infrastructure area characteristics. Overlapping two popular geostatistical models in the analysis, 'cold-spot' and 'hot-spot' administrative units were detected which displayed extreme differences in crime and growth rates over time. Additionally, using Bayesian modeling four categories of possible risk factors were identified in Opole. The established risk factors were the presence of doctors/medical personnel, road infrastructure, numbers of vehicles, and local migration. The analysis is directed toward both academic and police personnel as a proposal for an additional geostatistical control instrument supporting the management and deployment of local police based on easily available police crime records and public statistics.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-023-00189-0.

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基于2015-2019年波兰奥波莱省的重叠贝叶斯时空模型，用于检测犯罪地点及其可能的风险因素。

2015-2019年，以波兰奥波尔省为例，犯罪科学采用了目前用于现代流行病学的地统计学方法。在我们的研究中，我们应用贝叶斯时空随机效应模型来检测记录的犯罪数字（所有类别）的“冷点”和“热点”，并根据可用的统计人口（人口）、社会经济和基础设施区域特征来确定可能的风险因素。分析中重叠了两个流行的地质统计学模型，即“冷点”和“热点”行政单位，它们在犯罪率和增长率方面随时间的推移表现出极端差异。此外，使用贝叶斯建模，在Opole中确定了四类可能的风险因素。既定的风险因素是医生/医务人员的存在、道路基础设施、车辆数量和当地移民。该分析针对学术人员和警察人员，作为一项额外的地质统计控制工具的提案，该工具基于易于获得的警察犯罪记录和公共统计数据，支持当地警察的管理和部署。补充信息：在线版本包含补充材料，可访问10.1186/s40163-023-00189-0。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies

CiteScore

11.90

自引率

8.20%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.