Employment Growth and Industrial Policy: The Challenge for Indian States.

Abstract

The nature of and the future potential for economic growth will vary across Indian States because of their differences in the rates of demographic transitions. The growing population of the young in some of the States in the east and north of the country, notably Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, opens up a huge economic opportunity. It is also a serious policy challenge-to create new opportunities that meet the rising expectations of the job aspirants. At the same time, for States such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which have an ageing population, there are limits to future growth based on labour-intensive sectors. Across Indian States, during the period between 2005 and 2018, labour absorption into industry, construction and services lagged way behind the increase in the potential supply of workers into these sectors. The mismatch between labour demand and potential labour supply widened after 2012, leading to an increase in unemployment rates and a large-scale withdrawal of women from the labour market. For reviving employment growth, India requires a mix of social, employment and industrial policies. The States should have greater financial and functional autonomy to implement these policies in a way that suit their specific stages of development.