Looking into the rear-view mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?

Pierre L. Siklos
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the narratives surrounding Japan's economic performance since the 1980s in relation to the experiences of the U.S. and the Eurozone. There are important differences between these three economies and some striking parallels. It is found that the poor reputation of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, at times, underserved. To be sure, there were periods of excessive tightness in policy, but the same is true for the other two economies considered. Indeed, the BoJ has been more credible than the other two central banks considered at various times over the past three decades.

In addition, a look back at BoJ over the decades does not provide much support the hypothesis that a significant policy break translates into economic success. Instead, smaller changes are just as likely to lead to a tipping point with significant consequences. Indeed, some narrative-based significant regime shifts do not show in the data.

回顾后视镜:日本给欧元区和美国的教训?
本文结合美国和欧元区的经验,重新考虑了围绕日本自20世纪80年代以来经济表现的叙述。这三个经济体之间存在重要差异,也有一些惊人的相似之处。人们发现,日本央行(BoJ)的不良声誉有时得不到应有的服务。诚然,有过政策过度紧缩的时期,但其他两个经济体也是如此。事实上,在过去30年的不同时期,日本央行比其他两家央行更可信。此外,回顾日本央行过去几十年的表现,并没有提供多少支持“重大政策突破会转化为经济成功”的假设。相反,较小的变化同样可能导致一个具有重大后果的临界点。事实上,一些以叙事为基础的重大政权转变并未体现在数据中。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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