Modeling and assessing seismic resilience leveraging systems dynamic approach: A case study of society 5.0

IF 4.1 3区 工程技术 Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Shohreh Moradi , Md Muzahid Khan , Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain , Mohammad Shamsuddoha , Alex Gorod
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Society 5.0 is a transformation strategy centered on integrating digital technologies unveiled by the Japanese government to create a human-centric society for economic development and mitigate sustainability issues. Since societies are constantly exposed to various natural disasters like earthquakes, many precautions must be taken both before and after a disaster to minimize the damage. Seismic resilience is one of the practical assessments that may be taken in this regard. Quantifying the functionality of seismic resilience requires a systematic examination of the relevant components and their functional impact. We present a framework based on fragility, consequence and recoverability stages for evaluating the impact of a component on its functionality for earthquake events. Within this study, we introduce a novel set of indicators, which are derived from the key variables impacted by earthquakes, including hospitals, grids, and infrastructures. To that end, we have developed a system dynamics (SD) model to assess earthquake resilience in the context of Society 5.0, considering three earthquake magnitudes (7, 8, and 9 Mw) to simulate societal seismic resilience. We also perform sensitivity analysis to validate the outcomes of the policy simulations. Our findings affirm that by scrutinizing the seismic resilience of critical infrastructure and proposing relevant policies, it is possible to minimize disaster-related damage. This represents a pragmatic step forward in the field of disaster risk management.

利用系统动态方法建模和评估地震恢复力:社会5.0的案例研究
“社会5.0”是日本政府提出的以整合数字技术为核心的转型战略,旨在为经济发展打造以人为中心的社会,缓解可持续性问题。由于社会不断受到地震等各种自然灾害的影响,因此必须在灾害发生前后采取许多预防措施,以尽量减少损失。地震恢复力是在这方面可以采取的实际评估之一。量化地震弹性的功能需要对相关组件及其功能影响进行系统检查。我们提出了一个基于脆弱性、后果和可恢复性阶段的框架,用于评估地震事件中组件对其功能的影响。在这项研究中,我们引入了一套新的指标,这些指标来自受地震影响的关键变量,包括医院、电网和基础设施。为此,我们开发了一个系统动力学(SD)模型来评估社会5.0背景下的地震恢复能力,考虑三种地震震级(7、8和9 Mw)来模拟社会地震恢复能力。我们还进行了敏感性分析来验证政策模拟的结果。我们的研究结果证实,通过审查关键基础设施的抗震能力并提出相关政策,有可能将灾害相关损失降到最低。这是灾害风险管理领域向前迈出的务实一步。
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来源期刊
International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection
International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS-ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
5.60%
发文量
46
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection (IJCIP) was launched in 2008, with the primary aim of publishing scholarly papers of the highest quality in all areas of critical infrastructure protection. Of particular interest are articles that weave science, technology, law and policy to craft sophisticated yet practical solutions for securing assets in the various critical infrastructure sectors. These critical infrastructure sectors include: information technology, telecommunications, energy, banking and finance, transportation systems, chemicals, critical manufacturing, agriculture and food, defense industrial base, public health and health care, national monuments and icons, drinking water and water treatment systems, commercial facilities, dams, emergency services, nuclear reactors, materials and waste, postal and shipping, and government facilities. Protecting and ensuring the continuity of operation of critical infrastructure assets are vital to national security, public health and safety, economic vitality, and societal wellbeing. The scope of the journal includes, but is not limited to: 1. Analysis of security challenges that are unique or common to the various infrastructure sectors. 2. Identification of core security principles and techniques that can be applied to critical infrastructure protection. 3. Elucidation of the dependencies and interdependencies existing between infrastructure sectors and techniques for mitigating the devastating effects of cascading failures. 4. Creation of sophisticated, yet practical, solutions, for critical infrastructure protection that involve mathematical, scientific and engineering techniques, economic and social science methods, and/or legal and public policy constructs.
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