Does elevation impact local level climate change? An analysis based on fifteen years of daily diurnal data and time series forecasts

Abstract

The impact of elevation on climate change is a well-established research agenda. In the present era of climate change, it is necessary to understand the local impacts of such relationships. In this study, we attempted to portray local climate change using its altitudinal factor and fifteen years (2000–2014) of daily diurnal data from 20 stations in West Bengal, India that experienced increasing summer temperatures over the last several years. The study region is a combined zone of the plateau and plain region where there are variations in altitude. Further, the study used the ARMA model to forecast future climatic conditions of the region. The results demonstrate that climate change is playing an active role in the region, although there was not a convincing relationship between elevation and climate change. The low-lying counterparts of the study area were influenced by climate change. As per the forecast, the gap between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures will generally remain similar to or slightly less than the present conditions, while there is a high possibility of a more prominent decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over time.