Simulation of regional population trends

Abstract

A simulation model for long-term forecasting of population trends in a geographic region by cohort groupings of age and sex is presented. The birth, survival, and migration rates of each group are generated by the respective statistical distributions for as many periods as desired. The simulation process is repeated several times and a histogram of population forecasts is constructed. The results may be interpreted in terms of statistical confidence intervals. The model is tested using data pertaining to Racine County, Wisconsin.