Georgi Angelov, Raimund Kovacevic, Nikolaos I Stilianakis, Vladimir M Veliov
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引用次数: 4
Abstract
Optimal distribution of vaccines to achieve high population immunity levels is a desirable aim in infectious disease epidemiology. A distributed optimal control epidemiological model that accounts for vaccination was developed and applied to the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model proposed here is nonstandard and takes into account the heterogeneity of the infected sub-population with respect to the time since infection, which is essential in the case of COVID-19. Based on the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 we analyze several vaccination scenarios and an optimal vaccination policy. In particular we consider random vaccination over the whole population and the prioritization of age groups such as the elderly and compare the effects with the optimal solution. Numerical results of the model show that random vaccination is efficient in reducing the overall number of infected individuals. Prioritization of the elderly leads to lower mortality though. The optimal strategy in terms of total deaths is early prioritization of those groups having the highest contact rates.
期刊介绍:
The Central European Journal of Operations Research provides an international readership with high quality papers that cover the theory and practice of OR and the relationship of OR methods to modern quantitative economics and business administration.
The focus is on topics such as:
- finance and banking
- measuring productivity and efficiency in the public sector
- environmental and energy issues
- computational tools for strategic decision support
- production management and logistics
- planning and scheduling
The journal publishes theoretical papers as well as application-oriented contributions and practical case studies. Occasionally, special issues feature a particular area of OR or report on the results of scientific meetings.