Optimal vaccination strategies using a distributed model applied to COVID-19.

IF 1.4 4区 管理学 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
Georgi Angelov, Raimund Kovacevic, Nikolaos I Stilianakis, Vladimir M Veliov
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Optimal distribution of vaccines to achieve high population immunity levels is a desirable aim in infectious disease epidemiology. A distributed optimal control epidemiological model that accounts for vaccination was developed and applied to the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model proposed here is nonstandard and takes into account the heterogeneity of the infected sub-population with respect to the time since infection, which is essential in the case of COVID-19. Based on the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 we analyze several vaccination scenarios and an optimal vaccination policy. In particular we consider random vaccination over the whole population and the prioritization of age groups such as the elderly and compare the effects with the optimal solution. Numerical results of the model show that random vaccination is efficient in reducing the overall number of infected individuals. Prioritization of the elderly leads to lower mortality though. The optimal strategy in terms of total deaths is early prioritization of those groups having the highest contact rates.

Abstract Image

Abstract Image

基于分布式模型的COVID-19疫苗接种优化策略
在传染病流行病学中,优化疫苗分布以达到较高的人群免疫水平是一个理想的目标。建立了考虑疫苗接种的分布式最优控制流行病学模型,并将其应用于COVID-19大流行病例。这里提出的模型是非标准的,并且考虑了感染亚群相对于感染时间的异质性,这在COVID-19的情况下是必不可少的。根据COVID-19的流行病学特征,分析了几种疫苗接种方案和最优疫苗接种策略。特别地,我们考虑在整个人口中随机接种疫苗,并优先考虑年龄组(如老年人),并将效果与最优解决方案进行比较。模型的数值结果表明,随机接种疫苗在减少感染个体总数方面是有效的。不过,优先照顾老年人可以降低死亡率。就总死亡人数而言,最佳战略是尽早优先处理接触率最高的群体。
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来源期刊
Central European Journal of Operations Research
Central European Journal of Operations Research 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
11.80%
发文量
30
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The Central European Journal of Operations Research provides an international readership with high quality papers that cover the theory and practice of OR and the relationship of OR methods to modern quantitative economics and business administration. The focus is on topics such as: - finance and banking - measuring productivity and efficiency in the public sector - environmental and energy issues - computational tools for strategic decision support - production management and logistics - planning and scheduling The journal publishes theoretical papers as well as application-oriented contributions and practical case studies. Occasionally, special issues feature a particular area of OR or report on the results of scientific meetings.
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