Utilization of geophysical information in Bayesian seismic hazard model

Abstract

This paper first describes the inferential structure of the Bayesian model and uses it to show why the empirical method using only short historical earthquake data cannot obtain a reliable hazard estimation. For improving the hazard prediction, newly developed information from the geophysical and geological studies should be incorporated with the historical data within the Bayesian framework.

The paper, then, concentrates on the methodologies of how to use the energy flux concept, seismic moment and geological observation in the seismic hazard analysis. A refined Bayesian model, where some of the geophysical and geological input can be used flexibly and consistently, is suggested. Finally, numerical examples are presented for illustrating the application of the improved method.