Economic Analysis of CO2 Emission Trends in China

Feng Xiangzhao , Zou Ji
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引用次数: 30

Abstract

Climate change is one of hot spots all around the world. China, the second biggest CO2 emitter, is facing increasingly severe pressure to reduce CO2 emission. The article first describes Kaya Identity and its policy implications. Second, it uses the modified Kaya Identity and makes decomposition without residues on CO2 emission during the period 1971–2005. Taking into account the changes of macroeconomic background, it conducts a detailed analysis in terms of CO2 emission trend from 4th Five Year Plan through 10th Five Year Plan. The decomposition results indicate that economic development and increase in population are major driving forces, and that improvement in energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of CO2 emission, and that decarbonization in primary energy structure is also an important strategic choice. Finally, the article stresses that in CO2 order to realize the binding target of 20% reduction in GDP energy intensity during the 11th Five Year Plan, China should speed up the readjustment of the industrial structure and energetically develop the energy-efficient technologies and clean fuel technology, which will effectively promote the country to reduce CO2 emission and contribute to the mitigation of climate change.

中国二氧化碳排放趋势的经济分析
气候变化是当今世界的热点问题之一。作为全球第二大二氧化碳排放国,中国正面临着日益严峻的二氧化碳减排压力。本文首先描述了Kaya Identity及其策略含义。其次,采用修正的Kaya恒等式,对1971-2005年期间的CO2排放进行无残留分解。结合宏观经济背景的变化,对“四五”至“十五”期间的二氧化碳排放趋势进行了详细分析。分解结果表明,经济发展和人口增长是主要驱动力,能源效率的提高有助于减少CO2排放,一次能源结构脱碳也是重要的战略选择。最后,文章强调,为了实现“十一五”期间GDP能源强度降低20%的约束性目标,中国应加快产业结构调整,大力发展节能技术和清洁燃料技术,这将有效促进中国减少二氧化碳排放,为减缓气候变化做出贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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