Distant Shocks, Migration, and Housing Supply in India

Arnab Dutta, S. Gandhi, Richard K. Green
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

It is hard to estimate housing supply elasticities. India is a particularly useful country to study housing supply because it is large and has a variety of housing typologies. We estimate the supply elasticity of non-durable, durable, and vacant residential housing units in urban India. We use two migration-inducing exogenous events --- negative rainfall shocks and a highway upgrade program --- occurring in a distant state as demand shifters for local urban housing markets. We apply the Rosen-Roback spatial equilibrium framework to show that both the negative rainfall shocks and the highway upgrade program in a distant state increase inter-state migration. This increase leads to higher population and household growth, and therefore, higher demand for housing in local urban markets. Our findings are three-fold. First, we estimate the long-term supply elasticity of durable housing in urban India to be 1.64. This estimate is substantially lower than the long-run housing supply elasticity estimates of 6-13 for metropolitan areas in the United States seen in the literature. Second, we find that the supply elasticity of non-durable housing is -0.55. Negative supply elasticity of non-durable housing is consistent with the existence of urban gentrification through the demolition and upgrading of slums. And finally, we estimate the elasticity of vacant residential housing unit supply to be 2.63. We posit that a relatively higher vacant housing unit elasticity indicates speculative building by developers.
印度的遥远冲击、移民和住房供应
很难估计住房供应的弹性。印度是一个特别有用的研究住房供应的国家,因为它很大,有各种各样的住房类型。我们估计了印度城市非耐久、耐久和空置住宅单元的供应弹性。我们使用了两个诱发移民的外生事件——负降雨冲击和高速公路升级计划——发生在遥远的州,作为当地城市住房市场的需求转移。我们应用Rosen-Roback空间平衡框架,发现负降雨冲击和遥远州的公路升级计划都增加了州际迁移。这种增长导致人口和家庭增长加快,因此,当地城市市场对住房的需求增加。我们的发现有三个方面。首先,我们估计印度城市耐久住房的长期供应弹性为1.64。这一估计大大低于文献中对美国大都市地区的长期住房供应弹性估计的6-13。其次,我们发现非耐久住房的供应弹性为-0.55。非耐久住房的负供给弹性与通过贫民窟的拆除和改造而产生的城市中产阶级化的存在是一致的。最后,我们估计空置住宅供应弹性为2.63。我们假设相对较高的空置住房弹性表明开发商的投机建设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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