Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Streamflow (A Case Study of Dabus River,Abay Basin Ethiopia) Using CORDEX-RCP and SWAT Model

Bernabas Tesfaye
{"title":"Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Streamflow (A Case Study of Dabus River,Abay Basin Ethiopia) Using CORDEX-RCP and SWAT Model","authors":"Bernabas Tesfaye","doi":"10.7176/jees/10-11-04","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is becoming one of the most debating and threatening issues in terms of global context which alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the stream flow of Dabus Sub-basin which located in upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The CORDEX RCM downscaled and bias corrected were used for the climate projection.  To estimate the level of impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were divided into three time windows of 25 years as the whole from (2025-2099). Soil and water assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated for stream flow simulation using SWAT-CUP with a method of SUFI2. The results showed that the value of calibration and validation reveals a good agreement with R 2 =0.84 during calibration and R 2 =0.82 during validation whereas NSE= 0.75 during calibration and NSE=0.72 during validation. The maximum and minimum temperatures increase for the three time horizons under both scenarios with largest increase under RCP8.5.  The largest increase of mean annual maximum temperature under RCP4.5 is 1.31 o C while under RCP8.5 that increase by 3.097 o C in future periods of  (2075-2099). Similarly, The largest increase of  annual minimum temperature under RCP4.5 scenario by 1.28 o C while 1.42 o C under RCP8.5 in future periods of (2075-2099). Compared to the base line period the total annual precipitation decrease for the three time horizons under both scenarios. A decrease of mean annual precipitation under RCP4.5 are 12.8% , 18.26% and 21.27% while under RCP8.5, it show decrease by 13.76%, 14.87% and 13.6% in the future periods of (2025–2049), (2050-2074)and (2075-2099) respectively. The stream flow projections are made in the future with two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study show that an average annual decrease in the stream flow up to 11.97% for RCP4.5 and up to 13.37% for RCP8.5 in the next 75 years. Keywords : Dabus Sub basin; SWAT; RCP Scenario; CORDEX RCM ; Climate Change DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-11-04 Publication date: November 30 th 2020","PeriodicalId":10219,"journal":{"name":"Civil and environmental research","volume":"331 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Civil and environmental research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.7176/jees/10-11-04","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change is becoming one of the most debating and threatening issues in terms of global context which alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the stream flow of Dabus Sub-basin which located in upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The CORDEX RCM downscaled and bias corrected were used for the climate projection.  To estimate the level of impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature were divided into three time windows of 25 years as the whole from (2025-2099). Soil and water assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated and validated for stream flow simulation using SWAT-CUP with a method of SUFI2. The results showed that the value of calibration and validation reveals a good agreement with R 2 =0.84 during calibration and R 2 =0.82 during validation whereas NSE= 0.75 during calibration and NSE=0.72 during validation. The maximum and minimum temperatures increase for the three time horizons under both scenarios with largest increase under RCP8.5.  The largest increase of mean annual maximum temperature under RCP4.5 is 1.31 o C while under RCP8.5 that increase by 3.097 o C in future periods of  (2075-2099). Similarly, The largest increase of  annual minimum temperature under RCP4.5 scenario by 1.28 o C while 1.42 o C under RCP8.5 in future periods of (2075-2099). Compared to the base line period the total annual precipitation decrease for the three time horizons under both scenarios. A decrease of mean annual precipitation under RCP4.5 are 12.8% , 18.26% and 21.27% while under RCP8.5, it show decrease by 13.76%, 14.87% and 13.6% in the future periods of (2025–2049), (2050-2074)and (2075-2099) respectively. The stream flow projections are made in the future with two emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the study show that an average annual decrease in the stream flow up to 11.97% for RCP4.5 and up to 13.37% for RCP8.5 in the next 75 years. Keywords : Dabus Sub basin; SWAT; RCP Scenario; CORDEX RCM ; Climate Change DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-11-04 Publication date: November 30 th 2020
基于CORDEX-RCP和SWAT模型的气候变化对河流流量的影响评价(以埃塞俄比亚Abay盆地Dabus河为例
气候变化正在成为全球范围内最具争议和威胁性的问题之一,它改变了区域水文条件并对水资源系统产生了各种影响。本研究的目的是评估气候变化对位于埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游的Dabus子盆地的河流流量的影响。采用CORDEX RCM缩小并校正偏差进行气候预估。为了估算气候变化的影响程度,将降水和温度的气候变化情景整体划分为25年的3个时间窗。利用SWAT- cup,采用SUFI2方法对水土评价工具(SWAT - cup)进行了径流模拟标定和验证。结果表明,校正值和验证值吻合较好,校正时r2 =0.84,验证时r2 =0.82,校正时NSE= 0.75,验证时NSE=0.72。两种情景下的最高和最低气温在三个时间尺度上均有所上升,其中RCP8.5情景下的上升幅度最大。未来(2075 ~ 2099)期,RCP4.5下年均最高气温增幅最大,为1.31℃;RCP8.5下年均最高气温增幅最大,为3.097℃。未来(2075 ~ 2099)年最低气温在RCP4.5情景下最大增幅为1.28℃,在RCP8.5情景下最大增幅为1.42℃。与基线期相比,两种情景下三个时间范围的年总降水量都有所减少。未来(2025 ~ 2049)、(2050 ~ 2074)和(2075 ~ 2099)年平均降水量在RCP4.5下分别减少12.8%、18.26%和21.27%,在RCP8.5下分别减少13.76%、14.87%和13.6%。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下进行了径流预测,结果表明,未来75 a, RCP4.5和RCP8.5的径流年平均减少幅度分别为11.97%和13.37%。关键词:Dabus次盆地;斯瓦特;RCP场景;Cordex RCM;气候变化DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-11-04出版日期:2020年11月30日
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信