Managing unpredictable resources: Traditional policies applied to chaotic populations

Abstract

Conventional theory for the management of living ocean resources assumes a predictable link between current management actions and the future state of managed populations. As a practical matter, however, it is very hard to establish this kind of predictable relationship. It is possible that the dynamics of these populations exhibit chaotic variation. This paper addresses the question of appropriate management policies in a regime characterized by chaotic population dynamics. The problem is approached through a bioeconomic simulator that has chaotic properties. With light fishing, policies that alter the conditions of fishing perform better than policies dependent upon population predictions.