The co-circulation of two infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination against one of them

IF 3.1 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Complexity Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100941

G.F. Puga , L.H.A. Monteiro

引用次数: 2

Abstract

An epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is proposed to investigate the dynamics of two co-circulating infections. In the model, one of these two diseases compromises the immune response to future infections; however, there is vaccine against this immunosuppressive disease. The goal is to evaluate the impact of the vaccination coverage on the prevalence and on the cumulative deaths associated with both contagious diseases. The performed numerical simulations highlight the importance of vaccination on decreasing morbidity and mortality. The results are discussed from a public health standpoint, by taking into account outbreaks of measles and COVID-19.

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两种传染病的共同流行以及针对其中一种传染病接种疫苗的影响

提出了一种基于概率元胞自动机的流行病学模型来研究两种共循环感染的动力学。在该模型中，这两种疾病中的一种损害了对未来感染的免疫反应;然而，有针对这种免疫抑制疾病的疫苗。目标是评估疫苗接种覆盖率对这两种传染病的流行率和与之相关的累积死亡人数的影响。所进行的数值模拟突出了疫苗接种对降低发病率和死亡率的重要性。研究结果从公共卫生的角度进行了讨论，考虑了麻疹和COVID-19的爆发。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Complexity 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales. Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas: • All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology • Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems • Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems • Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems • Ecological pattern formation in space and time • The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages • Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory • Ecological topology and networks • Studies towards an ecology of complex systems • Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions • Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change • New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity